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051999


Short cuts:
Technical Facts
Pessimistic Viewpoint
Gary North
International Area
Religious Area
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Technical Facts


180,000,000,000 lines of code to examine

10,976,000,000 hours required for programing changes

$600,000,000,000 to fix the problem

5,000,000,000 chips subject to Y2K failure
The microprocessor chips that will fail are no longer in production.
They will have to be replaced.

$1,000,000,000,000 in legal costs expected












Pessimistic Viewpoint



GDC - gloom and doom crowd

TWOTWAWKI ( tee-OH-tawa-kee ) - The End Of The World As We Know It

These are the terms you will see often regarding the pessimistic view of Y2K. This view is what the press likes. It has violence, blood, and talks about the END. These topics and the people who spread them sell very well in prime time. They have brought Y2K into the light for us to look at it even though I think it is past time to bang of the washtub. The following are a few statements made by the GDC'rs. Keep in mind these people are not crackpots but are often respected members of society and highly regarded by their peers.

Y2K is the most complex problem facing the world, possibly ever, worldwide in scope and without historical precedent (unless we count the Tower of Babel). - Gary North

There is a 70% chance the world will drift into a decline/recession. - Ed Yardeni
At 12 midnight on January 1, 2000 (a Saturday morning), most of the world's mainframe computers will either shut down or begin spewing out bad data.
America's electric power industry is in danger of massive failures
Bank runs are inevitable. The world banking system and the world's stock markets will crash. People who have placed their retirement hopes in stocks and mutual funds will see their dreams vanish.
Techno-fascism is a plausible scenario -- governments and large corporations would intervene to try to contain the damage -- rather than build for the future. Blood will run in the streets! per Leon Kappelman describing the potential failures of embedded systems.


Strong words and scary thoughts. There is some validity to these remarks even though they push the limits. For example, a true disaster would be a chain of events, a dominao effect. The following is a GDC Scenario proposed by a group of programers who saw this problem with no solution.

GDC Scenario
Jan 1, 2000 The nation's Powergrid will fail
+3 days phones systems will choak
calls for police prevent protection
chaos begins to range thru cities
+1 week food riots begin
crime unchecked, assault, robery
no personal income, no work
+2 weeks small business close doors
no government dollars available
homes attacked by gangs
marshall law enacted in cities
+4 weeks stock market & banks fail
large businesses close, no work
national law enforced via the army
+2 months TEOTWAWKI
world in flames


Yes, it could happen and we could be hit by a meteor. None the less, these are the statements you will most likely hear and definitely the ones you will remember. I causion you to maintain a grip on reality when you hear and read about TEOTWAWKI.

The founder of the GDC'rs and the orginator of TEOTWAWKI is my next topic.





Gary North



What he has said.

So, of course I want to see y2k bring down the system, all over the world. I have hoped for this all of my adult life.

This will decentralize the social order. That is what I have wanted all of my adult life. In my view, y2k is our deliverance.

I have opposed fractional reserve banking all of my adult life. I wrote a book on it in 1986
HONEST MONEY. I would like nothing better than to see the entire system replaced. I think that's what we will see -- in 33 months. Actually, it will probably begin to break up in 1999. I hope so. The sooner, the better.

The y2k crisis is systemic. It cannot possibly be fixed. I think it will wipe out every national government in the West. Not just modify them -- destroy them. I honestly think the Federal government will go under. I think the U.S.A. will break up the way the U.S.S.R. did. Call me a dreamer. Call me an optimist. That's what I think.

This will decentralize the social order. That is what I have wanted all of my adult life. In my view, y2k is our deliverance. Just don't be in a city when deliverance comes.



Gary North has a Ph.D. in History, focusing in the distruction of societies throughout history. He it president of the Institute for Christian Economics. In 1980 he forcasted (and profited from the prediction) a nuclear war between the USA and the Soviet Union. Mr. North is a student of Karl Marx, writing a book titled Marx's Religion of Revolution - Regeneration Through Chaos. For 20 years he has made a living predicting society will end in panic and ruin. Y2K is perfect for his means of income and the Internet is a perfect media to spread his message, un-filtered. Mr. North may believe what he says or he may be just making an income but his words have already caused a lot of damage and his followers represent a faction that will cause more harm than good.

I believe Gary North is a dangerous man
and everything he says should be questioned extensively.












International Area


This is a small graphic where I have placed countries in relation to others. The X axis represents computer usage within the country. The higher the position, the more dependent a country has become on the computer to aid in business and daily life. The Y axis represents a country's automation expertise. This includes not only the skill levels of people in automation but also the amount of resource available and used to support the computer environment.

You can see a breakpoint I have established along the Y axis that a country must be beyond in order to have the skill and resources to address the Y2K issue. Countries to the left of that breakpoint may not have what is needed to avoid problems. Along the X axis there is another breakpoint. Countries above that point use automation to an extent that disruption will affect the entire country. Thus countries with high X levels and low Y levels could be facing serious issues next year.

Groups who have been tracking the status of Y2K have made the following statements concerning the International community.

This is the 'real' unknown problem. Just how many countries will suffer, how will it affect them, and what will the ripple do to us? Consider SE Asia. They have just started to reverse an econmic downturn and now they face Y2K and a possible money flow problem. Consider Russia. They have 22 nuclear power plants controled by 'older' computers but do not have the money to upgrade or repair. The result could be a major loss of power or a plant shutdown or even a core meltdown.

The rest of the world follows the USA in computer technology and thus everyone will have more issues than we will. It is in our best interests to follow the progress of countries who are dependent upon automation.











Religious Area


The year 2000 computer glitch is God's judgement on our computer dependent, technology worshipping society.

Time is running out and the end times are near.
Y2K is a message from God intended to bring us to the point of understanding that all that we have lived for on this earth, all that we have invented, improved, struggled for and built is worthless. The religion of autonomous science has about 17 months to go. Y2K will bury the corpse. Science will be the last of the 20th century's gods that failed.

These are statements made by some of our religious leaders regarding Y2K. These people truly believe what they are saying is based upon the Bible. This may not be the majority thought but it is what you will see on the Web if you search for Y2K. The majority of the religious community has done little acknowledgement of Y2K and has written even less.

Also, consider the following passages from the Bible. This is an example of how the Bible is being used by the far-Right when talking about Y2K.



passages used to justify fleeing the city

PROVERBS 22:3 The clever see danager and hide; but the simple go on, and suffer from it.
(( this passage really refers to preparation, not running away ))

JOHN 10:12 The hired hand, who is not the shepherd and does not own the sheep, sees the wolf coming and leaves the sheep and runs away ---
(( ain't my problem, get out of Dodge ))

response - PSALM 23:4 Even though I walk through the darkest valley, I feel no evil; for you are with me; your rod and your staff - they comfort me
(( I can not see any reason to quote Proverbs and John over Psalm when thinking about Y2K. ))




passages used to show Y2K as God's vengence

REVELATION 9:12 The first woe has passed. There are still two woes to come.
(( I do not see the signs for the final battle. I can not see the relavence or Revelations ))

LEVITICUS 26:21 If you continue to hostile to me, and will not obey me, I will continue to plague you sevenfold for your sins.
(( If you read all of Leviticus you will see that the Lord is angry with the whole state of Isael for not following his laws. I do not see the relevance to Y2K

response - PROVERBS 16:33 The lot is cast into the lap, but the decision is the Lord's alone.
response - ROMANS 8:28 And we know that all things work together for good, for those who love God, who are called according to His purpose
(( God will decide when the End has come and our destiny will have already been decided. It is useless for us to try and second guess Him. Anyway, all things work out good for those who believe in God and follow his teachings. ))



Here are a couple more statements for you to think about.

A computer is like the oars of a row boat. It is a tool to help you take the boat (your knowledge) across the unknown sea. It is not a weapon created by Satan

Misplaced guilt is one of Satan's favorite weapons against believers.

As Christians we have a responsibility to trust in God, in that what happens has a purpose.



A minority of the religious community, a vocal minority, is using the Y2K problem as a means to recruit 'believers'. They play upon the fears of people and attribute the coming distruction to His retrobution. They sell their belief as if it is the only way survive. I personally believe God is loving and will never again distory the earth, it was His promise to us after the Flood. I also believe that a person can come to Christ only by choosing to do so, not out of fear or intimidation. For these reasons I am disappointed in the lack of leadership thus far offered by the majority of the religious leaders and of the religious community. I am also appaulled at those using His name to instill fear and panic and make money.

Unfortunately and to my deep regret, Y2K has turned into a religious issue rather than a technical and business issue were it rightly belongs.



OBEY GOD, NOT YOUR FEAR.




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