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051999
Y2K Awareness


The Rector of my church asked me to look into the Y2K issue from a Christain point of view. As a result
I now sit on the Mayor's Y2K Advisory Taskforce representing the Eqiscopal denomination in the
Charleston area and I prepared an awareness presentation which I have given several times at my
church. The following is a summary of the seminar. My statements are based on 30 years of experience
and a lot of time on the Web. Frist is what I think is most likely to happen, what I believe are the things
needed to prepare, then a few suggested Web Links. At the end is a discussion of the topic in selected areas.

Statements made are my own. It would be wise for you to read other views then make up your own mind.







You will notice the words that are emphasized. I nor anyone can say for
certain what will happen in 2000 but this is my best guess as of May, 1999.
Truth is, no one except God really knows what will happen next year.



What is most likely to happen?

** There is a possibility of a mild recession.
[ It stands to reason that the economy will slow some due to the dollars spent on this issue. However, a complete downturn is unlikely. Much of the money spent was under standard maintenance and a lot under normal upgrading. Still we can expect a slow down during the first half of 2000 ]

** We might see a dip in the stock market as we always do when there is uncertainty.
[ I believe this will be seen in some high tech companies and companies with many ties Internationally ]

** There will probably be an increase in unemployment and layoffs tied to the stock market.
[ ..and due to an economic slow down. Yet we currently have little unemployment so some change is not unreasonable, a normal cycle ]

** The will be sporadic shortages of various consumer products.
[ Most of these will be imports ]

** Internationally, it is possible we will see civil unrest, economic & currency instability, and political instability.
[ This could be a real problem and is a real unknown. See discussion below ]


What will happen is highly dependent upon the x-factor or how we as humans react (or do not react). If panic takes over even for a small percentage, the x-factor could swing and the economic condition would be more pronounced.

The media could be our biggest problem if they continue to focus on the sensational. Yet, that's what the public wants to see. However, this time, reporting just to bring up Neilson ratings could cause the chaos to really happen. Remember Chicken Little? We must insist upon responsible journalism in the coming months.

footnote: If there is one major failure that would not surprize me, it would be the IRS. The Internal Revenue Service is totally unprepared. Based upon reliable sources in Washington, it was said that the IRS may not be able to collect taxes. This is one that has not been told to the press nor will you hear about it in open government sessions. There are a few members in Congress who believe that this could lead to a tax reform being implemented since the IRS may have no other choice. The billions they spent a few years ago on computer upgrades did not meet their goals and the system remains Y2K non-compliant. Look for a flat rate tax before April 15, 2000.











Let me make a couple of statements before the preparation list.

So,


Preparation for Y2K

** Do Not Panic.

** If you do not keep your pantry stocked, prepare as though you are going camping for 5 days or so.

** Keep a paper trail of automatic debits/credits, credit card transactions and balance your checking account.

** Do not over spend for Christmas.

** If possible avoid travel over the New Year holiday.

** Stay up to date on Y2K by using reliable information sources. (see Links)

** Do your contingency planning through your church or local civic committee.




In other words, let's agree to keep a grip on reality. Use common sense and do not over react to the GDC'rs

The time limit for fixing the problem has passed. It will happen. Contingency planning is where we can now lessen the possible impact and provide help (if needed) to those who may be affected.

What we can not do individually, we can do collectively,
..... what we can do within the churches is far more than what we can do alone.

Any effort put forth to a common resource may not be needed due to Y2K but there will be a need at some time. Maybe the next hurricane. So any work you do will not be in vain.











Y2K Links

The following is a cross section of recommended links. They are followed by a collection of others. There are hundreds of other sites you can visit starting from any of these.

Zdnet
You can get fast information on Y2K BIOS- and software-testing tools, plus news and survey results. This page also carries commentaries, case studies, and links to other resource sites.

Y2K News Magazine
The online version of Y2K News Magazine covers everything Y2K. You'll find daily updates of worldwide Y2K news and an extensive archive of Y2K articles, as well as threaded discussion forums and a Y2K chat room.

Year 2000 Information Center
Sponsored by Y2K expert Peter de Jager, this site has links to late-breaking news articles, vendor sites, and user groups, as well as educated insights into how to deal with Y2K problems.

Mitre/ESC Year 2000 Homepage
With information provided by the Air Force Material Command and maintained by the nonprofit Mitre Corp., this site contains a complete description of the Y2K problem, including how to take action, details of the five phases of compliance, tips on attaining Y2K certification, lists of solutions and providers and information on contingency planning.

Dr. Ed Yardeni's Economics Network
Dr. Ed Yardeni, chief economist of Deutsche Bank Securities in New York and an early herald of Y2K ills, keeps the financial and business worlds posted on all facets of Y2K. This site has an enormous amount of timely information in many formats; It considers global ramifications as well.

Michael S. Hyatt's Y2Kprep
Hosted by author and consumer advocate Michael S. Hyatt, the Y2Kprep site offers advice on how consumers can prepare for the Y2K problem.

Year 2000
This site contains the Federal Government Year 2000 Progress Reports. These report cards grade major federal agencies on their progress toward solving the Y2K problem. Also available is a report that discusses the Y2K problem at federal, state, and local levels.

The Joseph Project 2000 The site, a Christian-led nonprofit, seeks to prevent and respond to the potential impacts of the Year 2000 computer problem in a biblically balanced and professional manner, honoring and glorifying God in all we do.

Other

Center for Millennial Studies
Millennium Bug in Y2K CBN News
y2k Preparation for the Church
The Year 2000 Computer Bug (Y2K): A Christian Perspective
Gary North's Page
Gartner's Consulting Web site
Christian Financial Concepts
Cassandra Project
NSTL free compliance test
Ken L. Holder's Y2K - LINKS
Y2K Links!
GOV - Y2K: Are we ready?
GOV - Y2K Information and Readiness Disclosure Act
GOV - Year 2000 Computing Crisis: GAO Reports, etc.
GOV - Y2K and FSWG Home Page
Federal Reserve Web Site
Medicare Reimbursement Status
FAA
U.S. State Department
South Carolina Y2K Status










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